The potential economic damages from global warming are considerable, varying across countries and generating substantial changes in trade patterns across the globe. These changes in the pattern of trade will also generate changes in pest pathways from the resulting impact on imports to Australia.
The project titled: Biosecurity risk from changes in climate, trade and pest and disease pathways was undertaken. The project integrates a large-dimensional climate and trade model with a trade-exposure model, for possible pest incursions with global warming. The resulting framework indicates the various risks of high-threat pests entering Australia and their links to trading partners under different climate and trade scenarios.
The enhanced model is designed to help the department determine changes in exposure risk along these pest pathways, with changes in trade, allowing for more targeted border screening and post-border surveillance.